Monday 9 March 2015

A long break for my first post

mus·ing

 (myo͞o′zĭng)
adj.
Deep in thought; contemplative.
n.
1. Contemplation; meditation.
2. A product of contemplation; a thought: "an elegant tapestry of quotations, musings, aphorisms, and autobiographical reflections" (James Atlas).
 
I have thought about what I want this blog to be after stepping away post-creation.  It is as it says, a place for my musings meant to encourage discussion and look at new ways to find answers to questions.

So naturally, my first post would have to reflect two players I enjoy watching on a nightly basis...Mark Stone and Erik Karlsson.

Both can be found quickly when the Sens' stats leaders page, at the time of this writing both have 16 goals and 25+ assists..but it's their play on the ice that captivates my attention.  Both the players pass the Advanced Stats eyeball test, ranking in the top 5 in SAT Rel % (thank you autocorrect) for the team.  Although I'd love to discuss Patrick Wiercioch and the great analytics vs eye test debate, I believe Travis Yost did that some justice already

However, I'm not here to discuss their stats, or at least not the ones we have in front of us, I'm here to discuss potential holes in the advanced statistics development.  For a long time, baseball's black of advanced statistics was defensive metrics...pun fully intended.  Something I find lacking is something that reflects with both of these players and the way they play.  Mark Stone has become a takeaway machine with 65 and a TK/GA differential of 36 this season, many coming in the offensive zone with his forecheck.  Meanwhile, Erik Karlsson effortlessly navigates the neutral zone with dazzling rushes but has 76 giveaways and a differential of -32.  This does not make Karlsson any less effective than Stone and as shown with advanced statistics even with a much higher differential, Karlsson is a player whose possession stats are more favourable than Mark Stone's. 

By making takeover and giveaway statistics a counting statistic similar to RBIs in baseball, it is my belief that we are not evaluating the whole story.  The statistic is useful for a counting purpose but tomorrow I will dabble in what could make it a more interesting statistic without over-complication.

No comments:

Post a Comment